--- title: "Trends" description: "Actuator prices and $/N·m, humanoid market share, roller screw cost, the price of AI against electricity and batteries, and humanoid battery runtime over time, every point cited." canonical: https://actuatorlist.com/trends last-updated: 2026-11-11T13:40:47.000Z --- How key actuator, robotics and AI quantities have moved over time, mostly the last decade and as far back as cited data goes (the AI comparisons reach 1892): 9 charts of dated points, each with its sources, a confidence (reported, estimated or modeled) and notes on gaps. As of November 2026. Weekly price snapshots for the whole catalog are planned for /prices (issue #95); this page is a curated sample. Same data as JSON: [/api/v1/trends](https://actuatorlist.com/api/v1/trends), or MCP get_trends. ## Actuators and robotics ### Actuator list prices Are the actuators builders buy getting cheaper? 2017 to 2026, 19 points. | Series | Date | Value (USD) | $/N·m | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Dynamixel XM430-W350-T](/actuators/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t) | 2017-12 | 230 | 56.1 | reported | [1] | | | [Dynamixel XM430-W350-T](/actuators/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t) | 2020-09 | 230 | 56.1 | reported | [2] | | | [Dynamixel XM430-W350-T](/actuators/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t) | 2024-02 | 270 | 65.8 | reported | [3] | | | [Dynamixel XM430-W350-T](/actuators/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t) | 2026-11 | 290 | 70.7 | reported | [13] | Current catalog price. | | [CubeMars AK80-9](/actuators/cubemars-ak80-9) | 2021-10 | 580 | 32.2 | reported | [4] [5] | | | [CubeMars AK80-9](/actuators/cubemars-ak80-9) | 2024-10 | 580 | 32.2 | reported | [6] [5] | With driver board; $479.90 bare. | | [CubeMars AK80-9](/actuators/cubemars-ak80-9) | 2026-11 | 580 | 26.4 | reported | [14] | Current catalog price. | | [mjbots qdd100](/actuators/mjbots-qdd100) | 2022-08 | 539 | 33.7 | reported | [7] | | | [mjbots qdd100](/actuators/mjbots-qdd100) | 2025-01 | 539 | 33.7 | reported | [8] | Single-unit price; 100+ units $479. | | [mjbots qdd100](/actuators/mjbots-qdd100) | 2026-11 | 879 | 54.9 | reported | [15] | Current catalog price. | | [Unitree GO-M8010-6](/actuators/unitree-go-m8010-6) | 2024-01 | 500 | 21.1 | reported | [9] | | | [Unitree GO-M8010-6](/actuators/unitree-go-m8010-6) | 2026-11 | 369 | 15.6 | reported | [16] | Current catalog price. | | [Xiaomi CyberGear](/actuators/xiaomi-cybergear) | 2023-09 | 88 | 7.33 | reported | [10] | AliExpress. | | [Xiaomi CyberGear](/actuators/xiaomi-cybergear) | 2025-03 | 91 | 7.58 | reported | [11] | AliExpress. | | [Xiaomi CyberGear](/actuators/xiaomi-cybergear) | 2026-11 | 179 | 14.9 | reported | [17] | Current catalog price. | | [Steadywin GIM6010-8](/actuators/steadywin-gim6010-8) | 2025-03 | 85 (50 to 85) | 7.73 | reported | [11] | AliExpress; $50 bare, up to $85 with the driver board. | | [Steadywin GIM6010-8](/actuators/steadywin-gim6010-8) | 2026-11 | 93.9 | 8.53 | reported | [18] | Current catalog price. | | [RobStride 04](/actuators/robstride-04) | 2026-06 | 255 | 2.13 | reported | [12] | First archived snapshot. | | [RobStride 04](/actuators/robstride-04) | 2026-11 | 255 | 2.13 | reported | [19] | Current catalog price. | - CubeMars AK80-9: Earlier points are the first AK80-9 (18 N·m peak) with its driver; the catalog prices the V3.0 (22 N·m). - mjbots qdd100: The catalog figure is the regular price on the product page while the beta unit is out of stock (MOQ 50), not a price seen in a snapshot. - Xiaomi CyberGear: Past points are AliExpress prices; the catalog price is a European retailer's, so the rise is partly a change of seller. - Single-unit list prices in US dollars, not inflation-adjusted. Each point is a dated vendor or retailer page (mostly Wayback Machine snapshots); the last point is today's catalog price. - Most main-page leaderboard picks (RobStride, Damiao, MyActuator) launched in 2024 or later and have one or no archived price yet, so their history starts short. - $/N·m divides by peak torque of the unit priced at that date. Licence: Facts from vendor pages, Wayback snapshots, a paper and forum posts; catalog points CC BY 4.0 (actuatorlist). Sources: 1. [Wayback, 30 Dec 2017: ROBOTIS US store, DYNAMIXEL XM430-W350-T at $229.90](https://web.archive.org/web/20171230170330/http://www.robotis.us/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t) (facts) 2. [Wayback, 28 Sep 2020: ROBOTIS US store, XM430-W350-T at $229.90](https://web.archive.org/web/20200928213757/http://www.robotis.us/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t/) (facts) 3. [Wayback, 24 Feb 2024: ROBOTIS US store, XM430-W350-T at $269.90](https://web.archive.org/web/20240224040938/https://www.robotis.us/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t/) (facts) 4. [arXiv 2110.01562 (Oct 2021): exoskeleton paper picks the AK80-9 for its US$580 cost](https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.01562) (facts) 5. [CubeMars store: AK80-9 KV100 (first version), 9 N·m rated, 18 N·m peak](https://store.cubemars.com/products/ak80-9) (facts) 6. [Wayback, 10 Oct 2024: CubeMars store, AK80-9 KV100 at $479.90 bare or $579.90 with driver board](https://web.archive.org/web/20241010175004/https://store.cubemars.com/products/ak80-9) (facts) 7. [Wayback, 16 Aug 2022: mjbots, qdd100 beta 3 at $539](https://web.archive.org/web/20220816165036/https://mjbots.com/products/qdd100-beta-3) (facts) 8. [Wayback, 18 Jan 2025: mjbots, qdd100 beta 3 still $539 (volume tiers from $479)](https://web.archive.org/web/20250118011450/https://mjbots.com/products/qdd100-beta-3) (facts) 9. [Wayback, 6 Jan 2024: Unitree shop, GO-M8010-6 motor at $500](https://web.archive.org/web/20240106075807/https://shop.unitree.com/products/go1-motor) (facts) 10. [SimpleFOC forum, Sep 2023: CyberGear on AliExpress for about $88](https://community.simplefoc.com/t/xiaomi-cyber-dog-geared-motor-60/3855?page=2) (facts) 11. [Hackaday.io, 17 Mar 2025: CyberGear $91 vs GIM6010-8 $50 to $85 on AliExpress](https://hackaday.io/project/202366-the-unnamed-spider-bot/log/239239-steadywin-gim6010-8-vs-xiaomi-cybergear-micromotor) (facts) 12. [Wayback, 5 Jun 2026: Seeed Studio, RobStride 04 at $255](https://web.archive.org/web/20260605101824/https://www.seeedstudio.com/Robostride-04-Actuator-p-6775.html) (facts) 13. [actuatorlist catalog: dynamixel-xm430-w350-t](https://actuatorlist.com/actuators/dynamixel-xm430-w350-t) (open) 14. [actuatorlist catalog: cubemars-ak80-9](https://actuatorlist.com/actuators/cubemars-ak80-9) (open) 15. [actuatorlist catalog: mjbots-qdd100](https://actuatorlist.com/actuators/mjbots-qdd100) (open) 16. [actuatorlist catalog: unitree-go-m8010-6](https://actuatorlist.com/actuators/unitree-go-m8010-6) (open) 17. [actuatorlist catalog: xiaomi-cybergear](https://actuatorlist.com/actuators/xiaomi-cybergear) (open) 18. [actuatorlist catalog: steadywin-gim6010-8](https://actuatorlist.com/actuators/steadywin-gim6010-8) (open) 19. [actuatorlist catalog: robstride-04](https://actuatorlist.com/actuators/robstride-04) (open) ### Rated life of strain-wave gears Do actuators last longer than they used to? 2026, 2 points. Too thin to read as a trend; shown as the points we have. | Series | Date | Value (hours (L10 at rated torque)) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HD CSF, older | 2026 | 7,000 | estimated | [1] | Back-computed: CSG is 43% above CSF. | | HD CSG, newer | 2026 | 10,000 | reported | [1] | | - Too thin to chart over time. Rated life, MTBF and duty-cycle hours are rarely published for robot actuators, and when they are, makers quote them per product generation, not per year. Two generations of one Harmonic Drive (HD) strain-wave gear are the best comparison we could cite. Licence: Facts from a distributor's datasheet summary. Sources: 1. [TQG gear: CSG series rated life 10,000 h, 43% above the CSF series](https://www.tqggear.com/is/csg-csf-component-set-harmonic-gearbox.html) (facts) ### Humanoid shipments by company Who ships the humanoids? 2025 to 2026, 7 points. | Series | Date | Value (% of units) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AgiBot | 2025-06 | 25 | reported | [1] | 1H 2025 share (SAG). | | AgiBot | 2025-12 | 39 | reported | [2] | Full-year 2025: 5,168 of about 13,000 units (Omdia). | | AgiBot | 2026-06 | 44 | reported | [1] | 1H 2026: about 8,400 units (SAG). | | Unitree | 2025-06 | 43 | estimated | [1] | Back-computed: SAG gives 5,900 units in 1H 2026, up 170%, so about 2,200 of 5,100 in 1H 2025. | | Unitree | 2026-06 | 31 | reported | [1] | 1H 2026: about 5,900 units (SAG). | | Everyone else | 2025-06 | 32 | estimated | [1] | 100% less the two shares above. | | Everyone else | 2026-06 | 25 | reported | [1] | AgiBot and Unitree together about 75% (SAG); Galbot about 900 units, UBTech 700, Leju 600. | - Half-year (SAG) and full-year (Omdia) counts from two analysts, plotted at the period's end. Market size: 5.1K units in 1H 2025, about 13K in 2025, 19.1K in 1H 2026. - Unitree's full-year 2025 count is left out: press reports of the same Omdia study give 4,200 and 5,500 units. Licence: Facts from analysts' public press releases (SAG, Omdia via AgiBot). Sources: 1. [Smart Analytics Global, 10 Aug 2026: 19.1K humanoids in 1H 2026 (5.1K in 1H 2025); vendor units and shares](https://smartanalyticsglobal.com/global-humanoid-robot-shipments-2026-agibot-unitree/) (facts) 2. [AgiBot, 8 Jan 2026: Omdia counts about 13,000 humanoids shipped in 2025, AgiBot 5,168 (39%)](https://www.agibot.com/article/231/detail/33.html) (facts) ### Chinese brands in China's industrial robot market How fast have domestic makers taken their home market? 2017 to 2025, 5 points. | Series | Date | Value (% of installations) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Chinese brands | 2017 | 25 | estimated | [1] | 34,700 of 137,900 robots sold in China. | | Chinese brands | 2020 | 29 | reported | [2] | MIR Databank: under 29%. | | Chinese brands | 2023 | 47 | reported | [3] | | | Chinese brands | 2024 | 57 | reported | [4] | | | Chinese brands | 2025 | 55 | reported | [5] | 195,000 units by domestic suppliers. | - Mixes three counters (USITC from IFR, MIR Databank, IFR), so treat year-to-year steps as approximate; the 2024 to 2025 dip is within that noise. Licence: Facts from USITC, IFR summaries, MIR via Estun and CSIS. Sources: 1. [USITC executive briefing: 137,900 industrial robots sold in China in 2017, 34,700 by Chinese firms](https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/chinese_industrial_robots.pdf) (facts) 2. [Estun citing MIR Databank: domestic makers' share of China's industrial robot market under 29% in 2020, 55% in 2025](https://en.estun.com/?list_52%2F2303.html=) (facts) 3. [IFR World Robotics 2024 press conference slides: Chinese suppliers 47% of China installations in 2023](https://www.scribd.com/document/888077343/Press-Conference-2024) (facts) 4. [CSIS ChinaPower, Feb 2026: China produced 57% of the industrial robots it installed in 2024](https://chinapower.csis.org/china-industrial-robots/) (facts) 5. [Belt and Road Portal, Sep 2026, citing IFR: domestic suppliers installed 195,000 robots in China in 2025, a 55% share](https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/p/0IMJ655B.html) (facts) ### Rotary vs linear actuators How much of a humanoid moves on screws? 2026, 11 points. Too thin to read as a trend; shown as the points we have. | Series | Date | Value (% of actuators that are linear) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apptronik Apollo | 2026-10 | 100 | reported | [1] | 4 linear, 0 rotary. | | Kepler Forerunner K2 | 2026-10 | 100 | reported | [1] | 10 linear, 0 rotary. | | Tesla Optimus Gen 2 | 2026-10 | 35 | reported | [1] | 14 linear, 26 rotary. | | 1X NEO | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 73 rotary. | | Unitree G1 | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 23 rotary. | | Unitree H1 | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 19 rotary. | | Unitree H2 | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 29 rotary. | | AgiBot X1 | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 25 rotary. | | K-Scale K-Bot | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 20 rotary. | | UC Berkeley Humanoid Lite | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 22 rotary. | | Menlo Asimov 1 | 2026-10 | 0 | reported | [1] | 0 linear, 25 rotary. | - No public source tracks the rotary and linear split by year. This is a snapshot of the humanoids mapped on /humanoids (October 2026), counting actuators whose type is known; robots that do not disclose types are left out. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (actuatorlist /humanoids). Sources: 1. [actuatorlist /humanoids](https://actuatorlist.com/humanoids) (open) ### Planetary roller screw cost What does one humanoid linear actuator screw cost? 2023 to 2026, 4 points. | Series | Date | Value (USD per screw) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Chinese screw, volume price | 2023-08 | 150 | estimated | [1] | 1,080 CNY in a broker's model. | | Chinese screw, volume price | 2024-03 | 278 | estimated | [2] | About 2,000 CNY (Huaxin Securities). | | Chinese screw, volume price | 2026 | 70 | reported | [3] | 499 CNY mass-production price, from /manufacturing. | | Swiss screw, early humanoid builds | 2026 | 2,025 (1,350 to 2,700) | estimated | [3] | Reported range from Swiss makers, from /manufacturing. | - Converted from CNY at 7.2 (2023, 2024) and 7.1 (2026) CNY per USD. The 2023 and 2024 figures are brokers' planning numbers, not quotes, and disagree with each other; only the 2026 price is a maker's. Licence: Facts from broker notes; 2026 points CC BY 4.0 (actuatorlist /manufacturing). Sources: 1. [Baidu Aiqicha, Aug 2023: broker model puts a planetary roller screw at 1,080 CNY](https://yiqifu.baidu.com/cknowledge_10138864513) (facts) 2. [Huaxin Securities via Moomoo, Mar 2024: about 2,000 CNY per planetary roller screw, 14 per humanoid](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/35866303/huaxin-securities-planetary-roller-screws-will-become-an-important-segment) (facts) 3. [actuatorlist /manufacturing](https://actuatorlist.com/manufacturing) (open) ## The price of AI ### How fast the price falls, by technology Is AI getting cheaper faster than electricity, compute or batteries did? 1892 to 2026, 5 points. | Series | Date | Value (× cheaper per year) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LLM inference | 2026 | 13 | reported | [1] | 2023 to 2026. Cost of a fixed benchmark score, 47% lower each quarter. | | DNA sequencing | 2025 | 1.84 | reported | [1] | 2001 to 2025. | | Compute | 2001 | 1.51 | reported | [1] | 1940 to 2001. | | Lithium-ion batteries | 2024 | 1.16 | reported | [1] | 1991 to 2024. | | Electricity (US residential) | 1973 | 1.05 | reported | [1] | 1892 to 1973. | - Average yearly price decline over each technology's window, as published by Epoch AI. In log points AI's fall is 4× DNA sequencing's, 6× compute's, 18× batteries' and 54× electricity's. - AI's figure is the cost of reaching a fixed benchmark score with the cheapest model, not a list price, so the comparison is approximate, as Epoch notes. Licence: Facts from Epoch AI; no open licence is stated, so only the five published rates are shown. Original: [Epoch AI, The plunging price of thought](https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought). Sources: 1. [Epoch AI (Emberson, Roodman), Sep 2026: The plunging price of thought](https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought) (facts) ### Price decline per unit of R&D Is AI's R&D unusually productive, or just unusually large? 1892 to 2026, 5 points. | Series | Date | Value (log price decline per log R&D growth) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LLM inference | 2026 | 2.7 (2.5 to 5.4) | reported | [1] | 2023 to 2026. Price 12.7× lower a year while the R&D stock grew 2.5× a year. | | DNA sequencing | 2022 | 5.9 (4.5 to 12.9) | reported | [1] | 2001 to 2022. 1.84× a year on 1.11× R&D growth. | | Compute | 2001 | 4.1 (3.5 to 4.7) | reported | [1] | 1940 to 2001. 1.51× a year on 1.11× R&D growth. | | Lithium-ion batteries | 2024 | 1.2 (1 to 2.1) | reported | [1] | 1991 to 2024. 1.16× a year on 1.13× R&D growth. | | Electricity (US) | 1973 | 0.5 (0.4 to 0.7) | reported | [1] | 1892 to 1973. 1.05× a year on 1.09× R&D growth. | - Slope of log price against log cumulative R&D stock over the windows Tadepalli used (Epoch's, except DNA sequencing, where his series stops at 2022), with Tadepalli's sensitivity range (scope, R&D path, depreciation 0 to 30%). Per unit of R&D, AI sits mid-pack: its fast fall tracks fast growth in R&D spending. - Descriptive, not causal: the fit credits every price decline to R&D and ignores scale economies, learning by doing and spillovers. Licence: Facts from Karthik Tadepalli's repository (no licence file), built on Epoch AI's series. Original: [Karthik Tadepalli, rd-price-declines](https://github.com/karthiktadepalli1/rd-price-declines). Sources: 1. [Karthik Tadepalli, Sep 2026: rd-price-declines, Epoch's price series against cumulative R&D](https://github.com/karthiktadepalli1/rd-price-declines) (facts) ## Battery runtime ### Humanoid battery runtime Are humanoids running longer per charge? 2023 to 2026, 9 points. | Series | Date | Value (hours per charge) | Confidence | Sources | Note | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Unitree H1 | 2023-08 | 2 | estimated | [1] | | | Unitree G1 | 2024-05 | 2 | estimated | [3] | | | Booster T1 | 2024-10 | 2 | estimated | [4] | | | Unitree R1 | 2025-07 | 1 | estimated | [5] | | | Fourier GR-3 | 2025-08 | 3 | reported | [6] [2] | | | Booster K1 | 2025-09 | 1.17 | estimated | [7] | | | Unitree H2 | 2025-10 | 3 | estimated | [8] | | | 1X NEO | 2025-10 | 4 | estimated | [9] | | | Agility Digit 5 | 2026-03 | 1.5 | estimated | [10] | | - Maker-quoted runtime per charge; makers mix walking, standing and mixed-use figures, and some robots hot-swap packs. Points are flagged estimated where the launch month is the announcement date without a dated source. - No clear upward trend yet: newer models spread widely, set more by pack size and use than by launch year. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (actuatorlist /robots), plus facts from maker pages and press. Sources: 1. [RoboHub: Unitree H1 runtime about 2 h per charge](https://robohub.app/compare/unitree-h1/vs/unitree-r1) (facts) 2. [PR Newswire, Aug 2025: Fourier unveils the GR-3 care humanoid](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/meet-gr-3-beyond-function-designed-to-care-fourier-to-unveil-its-first-care-centric-humanoid-302523202.html) (facts) 3. [actuatorlist robots: unitree-g1](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-unitree-g1) (open) 4. [actuatorlist robots: booster-t1](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-booster-t1) (open) 5. [actuatorlist robots: unitree-r1](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-unitree-r1) (open) 6. [actuatorlist robots: fourier-gr-3](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-fourier-gr-3) (open) 7. [actuatorlist robots: booster-k1](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-booster-k1) (open) 8. [actuatorlist robots: unitree-h2](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-unitree-h2) (open) 9. [actuatorlist robots: 1x-neo](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-1x-neo) (open) 10. [actuatorlist robots: agility-digit-5](https://actuatorlist.com/robots#robot-agility-digit-5) (open)